They say, and by they I mean Mark Twain, “history doesn’t repeat itself but sometimes it rhymes.”
I’d like for you to flip back a little bit, and think about another summer a few years ago…
June 28 a nineteen year old member of a terrorist organization in Serbia saw the opportunity to assassinate the prince of their occupying power, Austria. The next day the incident appeared as a short blurb on the interior pages of the New York Times; to the people of France it was inconsequential, occuring on the same day a not-guilty-by-reason-of-insanity verdict came back in one of the biggest sex & murder trials in the country’s history.
Galvaro Princip had little to lose when he shot Franz Ferdinand and his wife. He was, in fact, already dying of tuberculosis. He was a part of Young Bosnia which may or may not have been a part of the Black Hand which may or may not have been connected with the Serbian government. In any case Austria blamed Serbia for the death of its beloved son and issued an ultimatum against its colony.
Things quickly deteriorated, Serbia refused (and perhaps could not) turn over the Black Hand; Austria, with Germany’s support, declared war on Serbia six weeks later. Russia declared war on behalf of its sister Slavs. France supported its ally in Moscow; and Germany declared war on Russia and France.
And thus began the Great War. It wasn’t long before Belgium and Britain ended the stage… the lamps went out in Europe and the four years that followed lead to the invention of better ways to kill people. Eight and a half million people died; the infrastructure of much of Europe was completely destroyed.
And so it begins. A little event (who can remember the kidnapping of the two Israeli soldiers?), was committed by a militia in a weak Lebanon and has led to ultimatums that cannot easily be appeased. The state-within-a-state happens to have the support of two countries unified in their contempt for Israel. Israel is in a two front war and potentially has an arsenal the size of the United States. The United Nations seems befuttled, "how to avert the crisis?" we ask and the only answer, "it's complicated." Nobody appears to be winning, calls for cease fire are being ignored. Best of luck to diplomacy, that might be the only leg up we have over those poor souls of 1914. So hear’s to the delicate tightrope and the hope that in the end this time a catastrophe can be averted.
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